This year’s English Premier League betting odds are the closest they’ve been in many years. Betting on who will win the English Premier League is fraught with danger, of course – who can forget the year Leicester City won it at odds of +50000?
This year’s EPL odds were already impacted by the global pandemic, which has been something of a leveler since Project Restart saw the Premier League return to great fanfare in June. After a topsy-turvy start to the 2020-21 season, that’s even more the case.
Who will win the English Premier League this season? Before we cover how the first four games of the new season have influenced the latest EPL odds, let’s take a look at each of the 20 teams and their odds to lift the world-famous championship trophy.
Odds as of October 14 via Bodog
A Shock Premier League Title Winner?
This could be the first season since 2015-16 that a surprise winner lifts the Premier League trophy. Liverpool (+140) is the obvious favorite, having scored in excess of 97 points in each of the last two seasons, but a series of calamitous defensive errors against Aston Villa in a stunning 7-2 defeat reminded others of the Merseysiders’ frailty at the back.
While Liverpool certainly looks flawed enough to finish with a lot fewer points than they accumulated last year and the previous season, they may well hold off the challenge of Manchester City (+150), which doesn’t look good at all. Pep Guardiola looks as if he is burning close to the wick and in their 5-2 home defeat by Leicester, City’s inept defense was coupled with a midfield who looks to be missing the craft and guile of David Silva working in tandem with Kevin De Bruyne.
Could Leicester City (+5000) spring another surprise then by winning what would be an incredible second title in six seasons? Brendan Rodgers has put together a tight, talented squad, but with Europa League exertions impacting on the squad later in the season, we think they might fall short. A better shout might be for the Foxes to make good on a run into the Champions League places, possibly at the expense of Manchester United. With three wins out of four, Leicester City looks very good so far this season.
Everton (+1400) has shorter EPL odds than most courtesy of their four wins from four games, though it is perhaps worth waiting to see how they do against neighbors Liverpool before getting excited. Liverpool would currently be our bet, but only if they can survive a derby day onslaught by players such as James Rodriguez, Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison.
Making the Top Four
Who else could make the top four, at the expense of either Leicester or Everton? Jose Mourinho’s Tottenham Hotspur (+1800) side has started very impressively, with a 5-2 win at Southampton and a 6-1 win at Manchester United seeing the North London side rise up the EPL odds table ominously.
Spurs look a very good first XI, but do they have the depth? The same might be said for Chelsea (+1200), despite a summer spending spree that took their outlay for the offseason to over £200m. It could be a close-run thing between both Spurs and Arsenal (+2500) in trying to overtake London rivals Chelsea, who last season snuck into fourth place. The Gunners are building a much more consistent outfit under young manager Mikel Arteta and could yet have a big say in the final shakeup, even if they miss out by a slight margin.
Battling the Drop
While many sides will be worried about losing their Premier League place, it’s highly likely that the trio of sides who have started with pointless win columns to date are most worried. Of Fulham (+250000), Sheffield United (+100000) and Burnley (+50000), it is perhaps Fulham that looks lightest and almost certain for the drop unless raids on the championship prove inspiring enough to prevent them from rejoining the second tier in seven months’ time.
Elsewhere, it’s very difficult to call, but West Bromwich Albion has little to no depth, so if players such as Matheus Pereira and Grady Diangana miss any significant chunks of the season, the Midlands outfit may struggle to make up the shortfall.
If you’re looking for an outsider to drop, then we’d avoid Burnley and go for Brighton (+75000). Again, you’re reliant on injuries to affect them, but having played so much better than Sheffield United and only gained three more points in the first four games, they could yet go on a slippery slope of trying to play neat, passing football against sides that are technically a lot better than them.
English Premier League Top Scorer
The Premier League Golden Boot odds are changing week to week, but despite that, there are some great bets out there. Here are the current EPL odds for the players racing to become the English Premier League top goalscorer:
Odds as of October 14 via Bodog
The current favorites, Mo Salah (+400) and Dominic Calvert-Lewin (+400), are both in red-hot form, although the number of penalties being given this season would lead us to suggest that Salah is the better bet of the two purely for that reason. Calvert-Lewin has been in sparkling form, but Everton ended last season looking very tired and the current injury to Richarlison is a timely reminder that burnout can affect any squad that is a little short, especially in this shortened English Premier Season.
A little further back, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (+600) is always going to score goals for Arsenal and could once again threaten to win, but we prefer Harry Kane (+700) purely due to the fact that Mourinho mixes it up a little less than Arteta. If Spurs get into a fight for the title, expect Mourinho to narrow his team’s focus, with Son expected to track back and therefore score less than his English teammate.
If you’re looking for an outsider, then Aston Villa’s young hotshot Ollie Watkins (+4000) could be a great bet, especially at such long odds, having scored three goals in three games and with a game in hand on current top scorers Son and Calvert-Lewin, both of whom have hit the back of the net six times in four games. It might also be worth sticking a small investment on West Ham’s Michail Antonio, who at odds of +15000 is a fun outside bet to sweat in the kind of form he’s enjoying.
How to Read EPL Odds
Check out any soccer betting site and you’ll see the odds to win Premier League play displayed like this:
Manchester City +100
For a typical straight-up bet, the favorite would be denoted by the minus sign (-). Similar to a moneyline bet with a clear front-runner, the club with the lowest odds is the fave, the rest are underdogs.
Let’s say you believe that Liverpool is going to dominate the other teams on the pitch once again and win another EPL title. If you were to lay down $100 on them, you’d get a payout of $275 – your original money comes back, coupled with your prize of $175.
What is a Premier League Futures Bet?
A futures bet is made in advance of an event. In this case you’re looking at the odds to win the Premier League. It can be said that all bets are made on future events. Except in this case, you can bet weeks or even months beforehand.
If you see odds you like, jump on them quickly. The lines will shift as more games are played and injuries occur. To get more value on a winning bet, try to get a club at plus money (+). This isn’t to say you shouldn’t take a team at minus money (-), but you won’t get as big a payout as you would with a winning underdog.