The Power Ranking of a competition is a very important factor when analyzing a football match. It gives us a sense of the strength of the teams, that is, how much stronger a team is technically in relation to another team.
In addition, through the Power Ranking, it is possible to estimate what to expect from a particular match. Therefore, with this tool we can understand whether it will be a balanced match or with a certain degree of favoritism for one of the teams. This article aims to present the basic principles for creating a good Power Ranking.
How do the Power Ranking categories work?
As its name implies, the Power Ranking is nothing more than a ranking of the teams in a competition according to strength. Here, we talk about the technical quality of the squad of these teams. Therefore, good teams are expected to be at the top, while the worst are at the bottom of the Power Ranking.
In order to build a good Power Ranking, it is extremely important to define the categories that will be part of the ranking of the teams. Depending on the type of championship, 3 to 5 classification categories between teams are recommended.
For example, if a championship has the characteristic of being well disputed, with teams that do not have much technical discrepancy between them, it is interesting to use 3 categories in the Power Ranking. If the championship has teams that are out of line with the majority, it is more interesting to use 5 categories in the creation of the ranking.
In addition, it is important to define the category nomenclature. You can use the alphabet itself to categorize teams according to a letter of the alphabet. For a Power Ranking of 3 categories, the letters A, B and C are used. For a Power Ranking of 5 categories, the letters D and E.
We can mention as an example of balanced championships the Brasileirão of series A and B. As for unbalanced championships we can mention the French Championship, which has PSG supremacy over the rest of the teams every year.
The following tables represent the categories of the Power Rankings and the criteria for categorizing the teams.
How to define sub-categories in Power Ranking?
After defining the categories of a Power Ranking, it is also possible to define sub-categories to make more precise adjustments and rank the teams with greater accuracy. Let’s assume that two Brazilian teams compete at the top of the table, only one of them has a more qualified squad. With that, she is more favorite for the title, while the other team should fight only for a place in the Libertadores.
Although both teams are in the same category, it is clear that one team is slightly superior to the other and must therefore be above the ranking. That is why there are sub-categories. They serve to define fine adjustments and create a Power Ranking that is more faithful to reality. Thus, we can define categories within a category – and they are called sub-categories.
For the sub-categories, signs can be defined to differentiate the teams that are in the same category. To be clear, we can use the previous example: the most favorite team for the title would receive an A + category, while the team that will fight only for the place in Libertadores would receive an A- category.
In order to make a good adjustment of the teams in the Power Ranking, it is recommended to use three sub-categories. The use of the + sign to indicate the best teams in the category, the sign – to indicate the worst teams in the category, or also to leave no sign, indicating teams that are in the category average.
The following table represents this concept and the criteria for sub-categorizing teams in the same category:
The Relationship of Categories to Favoritism
The creation of the Power Ranking is very important because knowing the ranking of the teams in the championship helps the bettor to better understand the degree of favoritism of a match. For example, a match between teams of the same category tends to be a more balanced match, without clear favorites. A match between teams with a different category already shows a greater degree of favoritism. And, for matches between teams with two or more categories of difference between them, the favoritism of the best categorized team is considerable.
The following table represents this relationship:
In addition, the vast majority of pricing methodologies for Fair Odds and Lines use the categorization of the Power Ranking as a starting point. For example, the bettor defines a fair starting line based on the difference in categories between the teams and, from there, he adds the other analysis factors. Examples of this are:
Need for Victory
Thus, using these factors, the bet will shape this line to arrive at your pricing for the match. Thus, understanding the concept of Power Ranking well is essential to start pricing and defining Fair Lines methodologies more efficiently.
How to use Power Ranking in your bets?
As we saw in this article, Power Ranking is a very useful tool for bettors when doing a pre-live analysis. From it, it is possible to estimate the degree of favoritism expected in a match, as well as to start pricing and defining a fair Handicap line for the match.
Another interesting point is that the bettor can shape the Power Ranking throughout the championship. That is, according to the performance of the teams the ranking may change. For example, suppose a team is quoted to fight at the bottom of the table. Thus, it starts with a Category C.
However, throughout the championship, the football presented by this team is good and surprising. Thus, it is possible to change the team category to C +, B- or B, according to the bettor’s understanding of the team’s evolution in the championship.
And you? What factors take into account when categorizing teams in a Power Ranking? Leave your comments and doubts on the topic below.