Take your bets to the next level by creating your own betting model. Having a strategy to follow can help you profit more and avoid some pitfalls that come your way. However, creating a betting model is not easy, as you need to devote a lot of time and energy.
What is a betting model?
Creating a step-by-step betting model
CREATING A BETTING MODEL
There are many different betting models, which can be more or less profitable, depending on what your goal is. By following this guide, you will have a clear idea of what a betting model means, in addition to learning the basic steps to create a strategy that will help you succeed with your online betting.
WHAT IS A BETTING MODEL?
A betting model is a strategy based on benchmarks, which help you to find betting opportunities at different sporting events. In addition, it allows you to enjoy the emotions of the games without your feelings interfering with your rational decision-making when betting.
We have to stay rational when placing our bets online.
When building a profitable betting model, you will have the ideal prerequisites for predicting the likelihood of different outcomes. A perfect betting model can predict the likelihood of a better outcome than online bookmakers. However, to build a perfect model, you need a lot of statistical data, knowledge and time. Bookmakers have many employees who work daily with betting models, with the help of large databases. If you want to build a model to beat them, you must be prepared to expend a lot of mental energy. However, if you manage to create that perfect betting model, the effort will certainly be worth it.
There are 6 steps to building a betting model:
Choosing the market for your betting model
Specify your statistics
Collect your stats
Decide what your goals are with the betting model
Build the betting model
Test and analyze your betting model
1. CHOOSE THE MARKET FOR YOUR BETTING MODEL
The first step in creating your betting model is to decide your focus. An overly broad betting model requires more work and therefore less chance of success. When creating a more specific betting model, the chance of it being more correct and accurate is greater.
We recommend that you focus your betting model on a specific championship, so that it is as simple as possible. The broader the betting model, the more complex it becomes. Another tip is to focus on a large market, such as English, for example. It may be more difficult to compete in the largest markets, but if you can build a successful betting model, the limitations and lack of betting options in the smaller markets will quickly become an issue.
Examples of bets suitable for a betting model:
1X2 (winner / tie)
Number of goals (more / less)
Number of corners (plus / minus)
Exact final result
Larger championships, such as the Premier League, offer more betting opportunities.
2. SPECIFY YOUR STATISTICS
The second step is to choose the statistics that your betting model will be based on. The important thing to consider here is:
Do not rely on very old statistics. The statistics of the last games are more important than the statistics of the last season.
You must decide whether to take into account the statistics of all the matches of the season or just the matches of a specific championship.
You must consider how these statistics will be affected if your team loses important players.
Many aspects must be considered when deciding which statistics the model should be based on. It is difficult to say what is right or wrong. The important thing is to define clear guidelines, which can provide an accurate betting model and which works well.
3. COLLECTING STATISTICS
The third step is to start collecting all the statistics and data for your betting model. This phase is crucial, as a betting model is built based on statistics. We suggest that you collect as many statistics as possible, as this volume can be reduced later. Collecting statistics takes time, but it is the most important phase of building a successful betting model.
You can collect your own statistics during matches, but this process is very laborious. Fortunately, there are a number of websites that provide all possible statistics. Some websites offer these statistics for free, while others require a payment to offer them. Using a paid site or not will depend entirely on you, the important thing is that it is a site that offers a reliable service.
4. EXCEPTIONS FOR THE USE OF THE BETTING MODEL
After collecting all the necessary statistics, it is important to define clear rules for your betting model, as there are factors that can make it meaningless in certain games. It is important to be clear when your betting model is useful or not.
Let’s exemplify: A betting model shows that there is a good opportunity to profit in a game between team A and team B, where odds of 4.00 are offered if 2 or more goals happen in the match. However, factors that are not in your betting model can affect this probability, such as the embezzlement of team A’s top scorer. Your betting model calculates the odds of the match based on the idea that all the best players will play.
Here are some possible exceptions that you should consider:
Absence of key players
Bad weather condition
Adverse conditions that can wear players down
A new coach on one of the teams
Messi missing from Barcelona.
5. CREATING YOUR BETTING MODEL
Once you’ve decided on your betting model, it’s time to create it. To do this, you can use one of the following programs:
Excel / Maple / MathCloud / MATLAB / Freemat
Our tip is that you start with the simplest program, Excel. You don’t have to be a computer expert to create a model, but the more experience you have in handling data, the easier and faster the process will be. A basic mathematical skill and an understanding of probability theory can also help you build your betting model.
6. TEST THE ANALYSIS
The last step in completing your betting model is to test and analyze it.
In the beginning, you can test your model on bets from matches that have already been played. After that, you can start testing it by placing your own bets. Try to look for possible weaknesses that need to be adjusted in the model and think about the time you need to test and analyze the variations made. Your betting model will probably never be 100% complete. Small adjustments are always necessary so that you can face the betting sites.